The ‘birth rate’ myth

BF EBF birth rate white genocideBritain First loves statistics. They’re flexible, they’re manipulable and they lend an air of credibility to any lie the Biffers want to spread around. Take for example the ‘Muslim birth rate’ myth. This is the scaremongering argument that Britain First trots out so regularly to try to frighten non-Muslims about an imagined Muslim takeover.

The basic argument is that since Muslim families have more babies than non-Muslim families the time will come when ‘they’ will take over the whole of society. This myth, which goes hand-in-hand with the ‘white genocide’ myth we covered earlier, isn’t just wrong, it’s downright ludicrous.

There are two main statistics that Biffers and other far-right Nazi groups such as the National Front or the British National Party like to quote as ‘evidence’ here. Let’s look at them both in turn…

Muslims have more babies than others

The fertility rate for Muslim families is actually falling rapidly, not just in Western countries but across the world. In 1995 the average was 4.3 children per family. By 2010 that figure had fallen to around 2.9 and it still continues to fall. In Western countries such as the UK the figure is lower still when counted across the entire time of each woman’s reproductive life (the only meaningful way to calculate her fertility over time).

EBF BF birth rate white genocide 2Actually Western nations have seen this before. We saw it in the 1930s and 1940s when the influx of Jewish immigrants and other refugees fleeing from Britain First’s ideological soulmates, the Nazis, also demonstrated temporarily higher birth rates than the indigenous British population. In fact the birth rate among today’s British Muslims is falling considerably faster than it did among Jewish immigrants in the mid twentieth century.

This isn’t about religion – it’s about the dynamics of immigration and the age at which immigrant families tend to ‘up sticks’ and move. Young immigrants often wait until they’re established in their new home before having children. That doesn’t mean they necessarily will have more children than other couples over the course of a lifetime – simply that they have them after they move. First generation immigrants do tend to have more children than the indigenous population but second generation immigrants are much closer to the established norms of their host nation. That’s not really all that surprising since, having been born here, they are themselves part of that indigenous population. This explains the ‘young bulge’ in UK Muslim demographics (88% are aged under 50).

Mohammed is the most common name for new babies in UK

Well, of course it is! That’s because it’s a name given to extremely high numbers of Muslim boys. There is no equivalent name among the non-Muslim British population and so, despite the relatively low numbers of Muslim births, the incidence of this particular name is comparatively large. Imagine what the result would look like if the right wing press had published babies’ surnames instead of given names. We think that surnames like ‘Smith’, ‘Jones’ or ‘Johnston’ would appear far more prominently than any Muslim equivalent.

The reality is that the right wing press published the research data for first names because it gave the most frightening impression – not because it gave the most accurate reflection of the demographic reality. The truth is that British Muslims’ birth rates are becoming assimilated into UK norms remarkably rapidly. 2010 birth rate research showed only 1% of British babies were named Mohammed. By 2013 it had fallen to only 23rd place in its most common variant – the most popular name in that year being ‘Oliver’. The ‘first place’ claim is arrived at by adding up a number of variant spellings but even so – it’s hardly surprising. Many Muslims give their sons the name Mohammed because the name is traditionally believed to confer characteristics of the prophet onto the child. It’s not a takeover – it’s a religious custom that distorts the figures.

Mohammed may be a common name (especially with all its many variant spellings) but it’s hardly evidence of a national takeover. Far from ‘out-breeding the infidel’ the Muslim birth rate is declining as Westernised Muslims adopt the fertility rates and patterns of the rest of UK’s population.

Advertisements

10 thoughts on “The ‘birth rate’ myth

  1. ebfblogger, I would only comment that there are SO many prohibited names in Islam that choosing Muhammad or another derivation also has a bearing.

    Like

  2. Very very thin apoligy for Islamisation of Europe at the speed of light.Too late because of such blind articles about ground realities and history of 1400 years of conquering,decimation,genocide of non-Muslims,out-breeding natives,conversions,indoctrination from age one,propaganda,inducements,full use of petro-dollars and ear psychosis with life-threatening cruelty on non-Muslims and ALL tricks of the trade

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Almost 10 % of babies born in the UK are of Muslim heritage when you add to that the Muslim immigrants it is very reasonable to conclude they will indeed become the majority within a lifetime so your entire cherry picking deception will be totally mute and I hope you enjoy Sharia law because that will most likely be UK law before 2100

    Like

    • New immigrant families have always demonstrated a fertility boom. But it settles down within a generation or so. People said the same about Jews in the 30s and blacks in the 60s. It’s not cherry-picking to be aware of the whole picture, including the generational nuances.

      Like

  4. Your sources aren’t very reliable. Who gave you the authority to call this a myth? The fertility rates among muslim immigrants is greater than that of whites in pretty much every country.

    Like

  5. The Muslim population has not shown the same dynamics as the Hindu or Sikh populations. They mostly come from a similar background with 2/3 of the Muslim population in the UK also coming from South Asia. The Census data from the Office of National Statistics gives the full age distribution for all religions for 2001 & 2011 and gives most of the data for 1991.

    To summarize the data for the youngest age cohort, those aged 0-4 years old from 1991 to 2011 for the Hindu and Muslim population we have.

    1991 2001 2011
    Muslim =3.4% Muslim =5.8% Muslim =9.1%
    Hindu = 1,4% Hindu = 1% Hindu = 1.6%

    The relative size of the 30-34 yr old age cohort, as a % of the English & Welsh population is also instructive. In 2001 and 2011 these were
    2001 2011
    Muslim = 4% Muslim = 7.3%
    Hindu = 1.5% Hindu = 2.2%

    It can be seen that the ratio in size of the Muslim 30-34 cohort to the 0-4 cohort is 1.25, where as for the Hindu 30-34 cohort to the 0-4 cohort is 0.72. The ration is over 70% higher, for the Muslim group. This indicates that they have produced 70% more children than the Hindu population, relative to their size. So the Hindu fertility rate does appear to have dropped significantly and converged towards the rest of society, where as the Muslim community so far has not. Perhaps the 2021 census data will show a significant convergence. I am very interested for the release of this data, unfortunately that probably won’t be until 2022-2023.

    The Muslim population is not of course uniformly distributed around the UK. With 4.7% of the total English & Welsh population being Muslim in 2011 and 9.1% of Children being Muslim. If an analyse is carried on on the 348 Districts of the England and Wales.
    The District with the highest Muslim % was Tower Hamlets with 34.5% of the entire district population being Muslim. However 53.7% of Children 0-4 yrs old were Muslim in Tower Hamlets and into the 60-65% range for those aged 10-14 yrs old.

    Of the 31 districts with highest Muslim % of the Population in 2011 (not 2017, this is old data), they ranged between 10% (Hammersmith & Fulham) to Tower Hamlets topping the table. Of the whole UK Muslim population, nearly 60% were living in these 31 one districts. The % of 0-4 yr olds in these 31 districts ranged from 16.6% to 53.7% and again around 60% of Muslim Children were living in this districts.

    If the Analysis is continued down to the level of wards, to take Manchester as an example, which ranked 16th with 15.8% of the Manchester population recorded as Muslim, but 24.9% of 0-4 yr olds and around 27.5% of 10-14 yr olds as Muslim. When the individual Wards of Manchester are analysed, in 2011 (old data), it was found that 50% of Muslims who are 10-14 yrs old, were living in Wards with a Muslim density of 50% or higher.

    Of the total Muslim child population 42% are living in Districts which have the same or greater than Muslim density recorded in Manchester.

    Incidentally the vast majority of the ethnic British population live in Districts with very low Muslim % and it would thus be most likely that the Muslims they meet on a day to day basis are the most integrated ones in Britain. As an example, only 5.8% of the Ethnic British population are living in the 16 most highly concentrated Muslim Districts, inclusive from Manchester to Tower Hamlets. Only 10.2% of the Ethnic British population are living in the 31 most highly concentrated Muslim Districts, inclusive from Hammersmith to Tower Hamlets. And only 23.5% of the British population are living in Districts which have a Muslim population which is equal to the English & Welsh average of 4.8%. This included 69 districts, the 69th one being Milton Keynes (0-4 yrs Cohort was 8.75 % Muslim) .

    The vast Majority of Ethnically British people (76.5%) live in Districts where the Muslim density is below the national average. Thus most will probably see integration working very well. Only 17% of the total Muslim population live in districts alongside these 76.5% of the Ethnic British population.

    If the Muslim fertility rates were to instantly match those of the rest of the UK population from 2011 onwards, and if immigration had been zero from 2011 onwards ( which as of 2017, it has not been), the Muslim population would eventually still rise from 4.8% of the Population to around 9.1% as the 0-4 yr old cohort grows up and works it’s way through the demographic profile.

    And article in the Guardian estimated that the Muslim population would have risen to 8.2% by 2030 for example, though predictions prior to the 2011, proved to be an underestimate, with the government predicting around 4.2% for the total Muslim population rather than 4.7%

    If the prediction in the guardian was taken to be accurate, all those figures for the concentration of Muslim population, would need to be scaled up from 4.7% (2011) to 8.2 % (2030). As I’ve already said once the 2021 census data is released, we will be able to see how we are getting on. I am so excited 🙂

    Hopefully everyone will be integrating just fine. But if I was living in a foreign country, in a semi British enclave which represented 15-40% of the population. I can’t see why I would change my pro western stance and suddenly decide to adopt the values and culture of the country I was living in. That hypothetical British population could quite happily live in a parallel society. So it shouldn’t be beyond to all possibility that communities representing 15-40% of their district population can quite easily live parallel lives here. This is made even easier, when the actually concentration is even higher on an individual ward level (reference Manchester 50% of Muslim teenagers across the city, living in Wards with have between 50-90% of the teenage population as Muslim)

    One last point, I think all communities have right wing elements, not just White Anglo Saxons, all groups have right wing nationalist elements. I think it’s entirely logical for a right wing nationalist from a non european group, with an anti western world view, to vote for left wing and hard left wing parties while living in a European society.

    The Respect party I feel was an example of this, until ultimately it began to split, due to a divergence of opinion between the Socialist Workers Party element and the more Right Wing (Non integrated, so their national locality remained to their religion & original home country) elements of the Muslim community, and the Labour Party was no longer the party of government and shifted it’s position towards the left.

    Of course from some people’s political point of view it might be very advantageous if a large community is forming, which shares an international view more in line with their own.
    .

    Like

  6. Liberals in Europe and North America will not allow any drastic step to stop Muslim immigration. They want to change the COLOR and the Culture of the USA!
    Don’t you see ?? Just stopping Islamic Immigration or Hispanic Immigration is only one part of the Solution.
    It takes 2.1 Kids per family to just SUSTAIN A CULTURE!
    Our culture will die off if we do not have a plan to repopulate America… What kind of people do you want to repopulate with ???

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s